I just finished reading New York Times Bits blogger Nick Bilton‘s book I Live in the Future & Here’s How It Works.
In the book, Bilton shares his vision of a future populated by interconnected devices, digital natives (Gen-Net that has grown up in a Web dominated world) and consumnivors (those, like me, who relentlessly multi-task and consume content from multiple sources).
From this reality Bilton constructs a theory of “Me Economics” in which he submits that it’s individuals that will be the center of every interaction in the future – individuals who will increasingly expect the products and services they use to provide them with highly engaging personal experiences.
Of course, all of it got me thinking what it could mean for real estate…
A peak into the future
It’s 2013. I’m sitting on the couch with my tablet computer. My desktop PC is gathering dust in my closet. A relic of an earlier time, I haven’t used it in a couple of years. Who wants to stay tethered to a desk anymore?
My dog Maggie is lying next to me. She’s older now and it seems we still haven’t figured out a way to get her off the couch. I fire up the real estate search app on my tablet. The app greets me by name and welcomes me into the experience. With only the slightest gesture, I flick the app towards my TV and I’m now viewing it on the 60″ razor-thin display that’s hanging on my wall.
The tablet is location-aware and so knows I’m at home. The property search algorithm understands that most people buy their next home within 12 miles of their current location, so default search results start to show up automatically according to those parameters. Since the app is also tied to the cloud, it has a limitless memory, and therefore starts to correlate and stack results according to my past behavior and preferences.
Also on the screen are a series of popular properties. I’ve already shared my social profile with the app, so it knows that I’m 38 years old and married. Behind the scenes, the app has crunched the data on all of its visitors and is now surfacing properties that other 30-something couples have been looking at in the area.
Of course, I can choose to redefine the search parameters by drawing the boundaries of a new search query on the tablet using its multi-touch interface. I dive right in however.
I’ve found a property I like. Tapping on the property card, it flips over to reveal the details of the home. Pinching and zooming on the high resolution hero image I fixate on the architecture. “Too 20th Century,” I mumble to Maggie. I flick it aside.
I tap another property. Looks nice. I hit the video button and instantly a high-definition video tour starts streaming of the home. I’m hooked.
Real-time market data is also streaming in alongside the listing details. I see mortgage rates and near-term property valuation trends for the home alongside all the details of my personal finances. I instantly see that it’s priced right and I can afford it.
My social graph has also surfaced about a half dozen contacts to the app that have lived near the neighborhood over the years. I see my old workmate Steve lives there right now so I fire off a quick message to him and ask what it’s like to live there.
The app also shows me that Barbara (my Realtor) is online right now. I see from her status she’s at Starbucks catching up on email. The Facetime indicator next to her avatar means she’s willing to video chat. I speak more clearly this time. “Call Barbara.” She accepts my call and her smiling face pops up on my TV.
With a flick of my finger, I send the listing card over to the dropbox under Barbara’s picture. She’s now looking at the same home I am. We chat briefly and she agrees the house is priced right, is in a decent neighborhood and might be worth taking a look at together.
Another flick sends the property listing to my wife’s avatar. She’s at our daughter’s swim practice. A notification pops up on her smartphone. A few seconds later a message appears back on the screen with the thumbs up. She likes it too.
The app syncs our three calendars together and finds a mutually-convenient time later in the week to go have a look. Barbara agrees to set up the appointment with the listing agent and we wave goodbye.
Steve has just hit me back now and says, indeed, the neighborhood rocks and includes a link to a fantastic restaurant on the corner. We agree to meet up with him after the appointment so we can catch up and then show us around. Reservations have already been made.
As a final step, I flick the compiled itinerary, which includes our night out with Steve, to the icon of my car in the app. Routing directions have been transferred to its on-board navigation device.
I turn off the TV. Power down the tablet. The job is done. Time to take Maggie for a walk.
The future is now
Science fiction writer William Gibson said, “the future is already here… just not very evenly distributed.”
All of what I have just outlined is very nearly doable today with the technology we have on hand. What remains to be seen is who ultimately pulls this all together for us. Is it going to be the brokerages, the MLS’, or the technology companies who rise to challenge and offer up this type of experience?
Something tells me we won’t have to wait long to see.
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Too many flicks… you shouldn’t have to flick your itinerary to the car – the car should be connected to the cloud where it looks up your calendar, so when you get in, it reminds you of your appointments, and simply by selecting one it should bring up the directions
Yeah – you’re right Max. My fingers were totally getting tired by that point anyway. lol
Joel, I love this post. I think your future cast is closer than you might imagine. Max, nice touch! Also makes me want to read the book. Thanks for sharing.
Thanks Peter. We’ll have to check back in on this post in 3 years time, and see how close we are, won’t we?
I think everything you mention is great. Many of these tools we use already with different services and apps.
But, let’s not take too much of the human element out of life.
Before you know it based on our social graphs, location, lifestyle, education, employment, schools, bank account, & etc. an APP will be making the decision on what home we should buy, formulate my offer, decide the statistical value of the property, automatically create the offer, and even tell me based on my calender and the sellers calender what day is best to close and the move. A “MOVE NOW” button on an APP that does everything for me kind of starts to feel a bit robotic.
Plus I do not want an APP to dump a whole bunch of the same people in my town. I like the diversity and range of personalities.
My car will be telling me to meet Steve… when I really just need to stop at a restroom before meeting up.
Just to clarify: I am GEN X, REALTOR, Tech company owner, and I feel that information should be instantly available to me online. I am on board with Joel’s app that he just designed…
I just want to make sure that technology helps us make decisions rather then technology make decisions for us. Because there is value in putting the tablet down and playing with the kids in the back yard – Oh and I do not post to 4square when I am playing in the back yard.
I think you bring up a good point John. But that’s what I’m talking about really. An app will never make a decision for you. But where I think machine intelligence can help is to act as a better filter and curator of all the information that’s available to us now. In the context of a real estate search it’ll be about helping you get to the 5 or 6 homes that you’re most likely to be interested in, quickly and easily, and then provide the complete picture of those properties.
The decision will always be in your hands. As it should be.
And this is exactly what has the industry big wigs scared sh**less….all this valuable info being out there long before anyone wants to call a realtor. Self preservation has always been their main concern and the old way of maintaining it was to withold info from consumers so they had to call. Those days are over, but it hasn’t sunk in yet. Either has the fact that realtors now must be in the business of providing valuable info and being experts in all facets of the transaction. Being high priced tour guides will only guarantee us to not have a job.
Technology is a great thing, but what comes along with it isn’t always good for everyone.
A lot o realtors will be looking for other jobs when all this hits the street…and it’s almost here.
“A lot o realtors will be looking for other jobs when all this hits the street”and it’s almost here.”
A lot of Realtors should be looking for other jobs as it is. Too many Realtors have stayed relevant solely because of their access to the MLS and not because of any real value-add – analysis, context, representation – that they brought to the equation.
Technology is not the enemy, although it is often portrayed as such. The real enemies are those who seek to stand in the way of progress and innovation (read: MLS’ preventing video tours from being displayed in the MLS, PDFs being hidden from public view, etc)
And I’m sorry for not closing my tag. It was meant to be after the “should”
Joel,
I’ll remember this post five years from now, I promise you.
You’ve painted a vivid, accurate picture of what’s coming. I can FEEL IT with everything in me.
Here’s my question: how many franchisors/brands/companies/brokers/agents are ready for this?
My guess: 2%, tops.
Realtors are still resisting simple VIDEO, for Pete’s sake!
As someone you know said not long ago:
“In real estate, stupid scales. Excellence lives in small pockets. That’s how it’s always been. And it will be this way until, someday soon, a rising tide of technology and consumer frustration reaches flood stage, breaches the levee, and sweeps forty years of toxic sediment out to sea.”
I can’t wait for the tsunami to reach our shores. Bring it!
Best,
Michael
Joel;
I love science fiction. And I enjoyed your preview (though why you limited yourself to a 60 inch screen is beyond me – and it wasn’t even 3D – shame on you!)
But in answer to your last question “Is it going to be the brokerages, the MLS’, or the technology companies who rise to challenge and offer up this type of experience?” The answer would be (in the usage you described) All three –
MLS’s are cooperative arrangements for sharing listing inventory – so they will house the data most efficiently – its their raison d’etre
Technology companies exist to generate consumer experiences specific to their products, so they will be the designers and sellers of the product to the Brokers (unless they have access to the MLS feed though a deal with the MLS, the Broker, or a national franchise organization)
Brokers distribute the data becuase its AVDERTISING – in whatever manner the property information is distributed. That has laways been the case, and will continue to be the case. In making the property information available the broker will choose the method of distribution they believe will bring the greatest interest and activity to help their sellers get the highest price and the best terms in the shortest amount of time. Somethings never change
“MLS’s are cooperative arrangements for sharing listing inventory – so they will house the data most efficiently”
Sharing with whom though? That has shifted way beyond what I believe was ever intended for the MLS. Before it was books, and they were easy to control (although they still were shared with the public). Now MLS’ are sharing listing inventory with way more than just other brokers – the MLS has shifted its function but the politics have not yet.
If an MLS could ever offer anything close to what Joel describes, I’d consider moving to that market to practice, because I’d be one of the 15 realtors/agents adapting.
Nice post Joel.
Actually one of those pie in the sky future dreams that’s very realistic and possibly doable, as you pointed out.
At some point in the future, there’s going to be a big clash between the data required to do things like this and a little thing called Privacy.
So we’ll see how it all goes down, since this much intelligence requires a lot of visibility and not much privacy.
It just hit me – photos, video tours? I don’t know about you, but this is yesterday and I’m expecting much more in 3 years! We already have the technology that designs floor plans and converts them into 3D models. Didn’t you see custom Google Street View API that allows you to continue from the street into the property? With custom imagery and everything to make and feel like you’re inside… In 3 years I’m expecting to be able to walk through the property myself without leaving the house! 3D virtual surround modeling with live-like experience. Whether it’s Avatar/Surrogates type of virtual reality or projected with a little walking belt under your feet that allows you talk walk the property (like on a treadmill) and turns into stairs if needed. If we have the technology to teach pilots how to fly plains, why can’t we have it to walk through a house? (less liability that’s for sure) I think the technology is already there, it’s just not affordable to everyone, but in 3 years things will be different
In response to Bill’s comment, I ask ….who says some company even needs the mls or brokerages content? What if a company builds a better site with all that’s needed and makes it a multi tier fee site. The better the presentation and content the higher the cost. Why assume that it always has to be a one size fits all mass market model that’s seen it’s better day….especially since it’s an obsolete way of attracting attention. If someone…say like Apple, does a real estate site insisting on quality and better content, sellers everywhere will flock to it even if realtors won’t. It’s going to happen sooner than later. Realtors think they have something valuable, when all they have are listings with crappy little pictures and even worse descriptions, that don’t appeal to anyone.
If all you’re going to do is repackage garbage, then why bother doing anything, because the end result will never change
At some point real soon an asteroid will hit the industry and the dinosaur will become extinct. Finally!
Jill,
RE your comment about Apple, I wrote a blog post entitled “An Open Letter to Larry and Sergei” in which I BEGGED Google to get in the game and do EXACTLY what you are suggesting: build a Realtor.com-type site based on Google’s genius and quality, apply all the Google technology magic, make it free to everyone, blah blah blah.
The public WOULD flock to it, because it would undoubtedly be superior to anything our industry could or would likely ever produce. As an industry, we do SUCH a poor job of presenting properties. Every time I look in our MLS, I just want to cry reading all the crap descriptions and low-res, lousy photos. It is truly embarrassing. And don’t even get me started on my local MLS in terms of the user experience. It is LITERALLY the worst web user experience I’m aware of. Using it, you’d swear your were in a time warp, transported back to about 2001.
Regarding the dinosaur analogy, you are SO CORRECT. I’ve watched a number of T-Rexes collapse around me over the last few years. Big, bloated operations with absolutely not a WHIT of value proposition other than a “brand name” that for some reason had “value” back when value was somehow earned via not much more than mere existence.
I can feel 10,000 words welling up inside me, begging to pour forth into this comment. I’ll stop myself before it’s too late…
The boys at 1000Watt have launched their assault on real estate’s “fortresses of suckitude” (BEST EXPRESSION EVER; full post at http://www.1000wattconsulting.com/blog/2010/09/demolishing-real-estates-fortress-of-suckitude.html). I’ll be forever indebted to them for shining a 1000 watt flashlight under the rock that is today’s real estate industry…
Loving this,
Michael
Everyone here has great ideas, but the biggest obstacle is getting agents to adopt something new, and to pay for it.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know that there’s a million better ways to sell homes, then what we’ve been forced to use. The mass market concept doesn’t work, but it’s the best the established industry has to offer, and it would take a civil war for them to change.
The status quo is dead. It doesn’t work anymore.
In my mind, the only way to change things is to have a group effort in local markets with individuals who have great ideas, such as us:) and crate a real brand with meaning and substance and kick the butts of the established brands, which buyers and sellers could care less about.
The national chains can’t compete on a local level because they have to deal with all the dead wood that permeates the industry. And more importantly they don’t get it. The best they can do is to advertise their “brand”, butthey can never prove their local expertise. Example: show me a local site for any national franchise, that has any valuable local content. It doesn’t exist.
A grass roots movement against the big guys is the only way to go…unless a google-type company steps in.
Nows the time to go out and start something new…as a team, and grab market-share. Individuals can’t do alone. It has to be a group thing.
And yep, you have to put your money where your mouth is. Create value and a hoard of desperate local sellers will pay to be there. And then the agents will follows
[...] Will this be the future of how people will search for homes? [...]
I think that you just helped me make the decision to go to law school and get out of the home selling biz. If the home buyer can feel confident by the images and social data available, then maybe a Click-’n-Buy real estate law firm can complete the deal.
Hmm?
On the reality side, it seems most of my recent clients have wanted to go through every house with a fine-tooth comb, discuss every “is” in the contract, negotiate very aggressively, haggle with the lender, and then still feel like they missed something under-handed.
Now that is the real “Me Economics” in 2010.
Doug, it’s all heading to click and fall in love, narrow down the choices and maybe then call an agent who may negotiate the deal…but at a reduced commission. Agents will become paid facilitators. Long gone will be fixed commissions.
Yep, time for a career change
Joel,
I love the vision, and think much of it could be realized in the next few years–in fact, we’re working on some of it now. But the key piece that is way behind is the quality of the listing information.
Across dozens of big MLSs, we see around 5% of listings with NO PICTURES, and another 15% with just a single picture. MLSs limit the number of pics agents can upload to 10 or 16 and the sizes to hundreds of pixels square. There are hundreds of flavors of “virtual tour” with no standards and very little connection to the actual listing (just a URL).
If, in 2010, most listings don’t have digital pictures of the size, quantity and quality I can take with my iPhone, I can tell you that in 2013, the number of listings with a “high-definition video tour” will still be pretty small.
Too bad, this, because we (and others) stand ready to build the rest of the your utopia! It can, and will, be very cool; but it won’t be nearly as cool until the lowest common denominator improves–the quality of the listings themselves (as filtered through the MLSs). Thanks for the post. Good stuff…Guy
The truth is, most agents don’t need to have the complete mls coverage on their sites. So we could in fact get a group of agents/brokerages within a niche market and create our own boutique version, that has a presentation model that’s more appealing to buyers and sellers and helps educate other agents so they can be better at helping to to sell someone else’s listings …with better slide shows and more space for a comprehensive description, and include home grown neighborhood content.
Most of us sell within a specific geographic area, and most sales come from a larger area, so there’s really no need to try to capture a tiny percentage of buyers who “may” be from outside the region. With a smaller but much better site we can concentrate on 80-90% of where sales come from rather than diluting it just for a few hit and misses.
Mass marketing is dead, especially using our outdated methods, but most hang onto it because that’s all they know, and they’re afraid of being out of their comfort level.
Let the big franchises have their mass market approach. They business model doesn’t enable them to compete with people who concentrate on local markets.
Maybe it’s time to break away from the mls’s…it’s old, and doesn’t appeal to anyone.
Joel, does anyone other than your followers here even hear what you and the rest of us are saying, because there’s so much discontent out there.
Great work!
[...] all about a new version of the desktop OS (Lion, to be released next summer), Facetime on the Mac (boom!), some incremental improvements to Apple’s iLife suite and a smaller, faster MacBook [...]
[...] all about a new version of the desktop OS (Lion, to be released next summer), Facetime on the Mac (boom!), some incremental improvements to Apple’s iLife suite and a smaller, faster MacBook [...]
[...] all about a new version of the desktop OS (Lion, to be released next summer), Facetime on the Mac (boom!), some incremental improvements to Apple’s iLife suite and a smaller, faster MacBook [...]
Love this post Joel. You had me right there next to you on the couch totally participating in your awesome experience. For a second I wondered whether “Barbara” would be relevant in that scenario, but I think she will. Finding homes to look at is the easy bit for Realtors. It’s what happens after that that’s important and will keep her relevant. Of course this means the “door opening Realtor” is a thing of the past. I for one will be happy about that!
Love the quote at the end too. “the future is already here” just not very evenly distributed.”
I’m sitting here just waiting for someone to pull this altogether…
[...] 2nd Place goes to Joel Burslem of 1000 Watt Consulting for “The Rise of Me Economics and What it Means for Real Estate Search”. [...]
I really hope it is not a Me economy. I like a We economy better. I always look to the United Stated and it says United me Stand and Divided Me Fall.
I feel the dream of the USA is coming closer and closer. Technology is to free us. Take real estate- honestly one site can do it all for the entire world. It can deliver a store front where Realtors feed everything into it and be searchable 1 million ways over. However, look at how many real estate websites we have- it is a battle of the minds. I ask people why are you on CraigsList Looking for a home vs Realtor.com, and they look at me crazy.
This leads me to wonder what does the future really look like with a zillion realtor websites. I think the websites offer amazement, but I think the business of real estate will boil down to the old fashion relationships still. Real Estate should be a personal and relationship experience.
Finding a house is as easy as 123RealEstateBingo.com (Made up I think) any the true parts of real estate comes down to knowledge, experience, skills, etc, and not finding a home. Finding a home is simple. I think the magic card behind the back is over, and now we will see the true professionals stand out. What do you think?
[...] connection with the previous post, here’s some of the upside to the technological revolution from 1000Watt Consulting: I fire up the real estate search app on my tablet. The app greets me by [...]
[...] – The rise of Me Economics and what it means for real estate search [...]
[...] connection with the previous post, here’s some of the upside to the technological revolution and a look at shopping for real estate in the not-so-distant future from 1000Watt Consulting: I [...]